Professor James Murray and Sir David King, the former British Government chief scientist conclude in today's Nature.
They present data which shows that the supply of oil has increased with demand but that since 2005 it has stagnated at around 75 million barrels a day, this stagnation has occurred despite an increase in the price of oil running at 15% per year.
Increased demand has resulted in higher prices, not more production. Production has become inelastic, unable to respond to rising demand and resulting in price instability but on an upward trajectory. Fuel price spikes contribute to economic crises. Murray and King conclude that the world will need an additional 64 million barrels a day by 2030 which is “very unlikely”.