It is going to be a messy divorce – if it happens….

When people divorce they want a fresh start, sometimes they already have a new partner in mind. Less often they just want to be clear of a relationship which although once significant  enough to them to generate a marriage, no longer is.

Many headed Hydra

In the Brexit divorce the party suing for divorce is a many headed hydra – during the campaign many promises were made,  some of which have already been disowned by Brextiers. The Brexiters never has and agreement about what they wanted post Brexit.

The Brexiters are already divided and planning to exclude the man who started it all. Nigel Farage’s supporters are not going to accept that and neither is Farage – he will be there constantly criticising the Brexit deal – it is plain foolish to think he can be sidelined. More

In may ways the referendum was like a by-election – there was a strong anti-Westminster vote. Some clearly voted Out and were surprised and dismayed when they won.

Over the next weeks the consequences of the Out vote will become clear, one of the Outers will emerge, from the coup in the Tory party, as leader and the  struggle to develop a negotiating position, to find a consensus, will begin.

Uniting the Hydra will be very difficult. With no manifesto for the Out side in the referendum there is no programme against which they can be held to account. However, everyone who voted Out had a clear idea of what they expected to get and they expect to get it. They were promised their dream and they expect to be given it.  I blogged yesterday about the back tracking already taking place.

Then comes the problem of actually divorcing – of completing the legalities. It is not clear that the Conservatives, under a new Brexit leader, will have the necessary parliamentary majority to pass the large number of documents necessary to accomplish a Brexit. It is not as simple as leaving there is a mass of legalisation to be repealed and new policies and laws agreed.

Then will come a general election, as the new PM tries to secure a working majority. There will have to be a manifesto, the proposals for Brexit will have to be laid out in some detail and by then it will be harder to criticise the Remain side’s concerns as merely scare mongering, there will be evidence in peoples’ everyday lives of the consequences of Brexit.

So the Brexit may not happen. It is not over

It is now becoming clear that divorce proceedings are delayed while a government not yet formed decides what it wants. If Boris Johnson becomes PM it looks as though what Britain wants will be substantially different from what I surmise the Leave voters thought they were voting for.

“It is said that those who voted Leave were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration. I do not believe that is so. After meeting thousands of people in the course of the campaign, I can tell you that the number one issue was control – a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones. “

“I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU. 

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer. “

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK. 

Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden. 

“There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. This was a seismic campaign whose lessons must be learnt by politicians at home and abroad. We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees. We must pursue actively the one-nation policies that are among David Cameron’s fine legacy, such as his campaigns on the Living Wage and Life Chances. There is no doubt that many were speaking up for themselves. “

Read more in the Telegraph

Ironic that we appear to have inadvertently kicked out our PM in a referendum rather than an election, that Boris appears to be writing of ever closer union and of being in the single market without accepting the regulations of the single market and the free movement of labour so fundamental to it.

There is at least one Conservative MP who does not think Boris wanted to win the referendum and that he used it to oust Cameron. She may be right.

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/10153845144376939/

Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times does  not believe that Brexit will happen either.

And the Brexit campaigners didn’t have a post-Brexit plan

ShitCreek

We are all migrants – House of Commons speech

Inter-generational conflict

Regional madness

Project Farce is Boris delusional?

Kelvin Mackenzie of The Sun admits ‘buyer’s remorse’ after voting for Brexit

The Sun has also got around to telling its readers what Brexit will mean, and they are not happy read the story

‘Go back home’ – Bitter backlash post EU referendum more

Sean O’Grady I voted Leave – but looking at the reasons, it’s undeniable that we’ll stay in the European Union after all read

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Harold Goodwin